Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 22.621903 27.121832 32.063764 37.865158 44.459083 51.690937 60.191429
2025-08-10 15.541636 21.308192 28.289727 37.237983 48.267404 61.279472 77.642618
2025-08-17 11.902395 18.176304 26.373873 37.594579 52.254454 70.446571 94.384547
2025-08-24 9.315079 15.684265 24.587007 37.476297 55.147444 77.987434 109.132011
2025-08-31 7.126992 13.225850 22.329470 36.225670 56.138013 82.830758 120.387294
2025-09-07 5.951932 12.025226 21.614703 36.910457 59.628092 90.977460 136.180190
2025-09-14 4.730644 10.473225 20.093683 36.146689 60.862088 95.957458 147.781440
2025-09-21 4.061693 9.734548 19.728617 37.039883 64.482335 104.350732 164.340116
2025-09-28 3.116432 8.253994 17.884284 35.331598 63.958091 106.664211 172.323734
2025-10-05 2.758739 7.868705 17.888625 36.629129 68.122972 115.969883 190.618175
2025-10-12 2.403785 7.405068 17.672989 37.498533 71.611368 124.364236 207.838277
2025-10-19 2.091853 6.963133 17.428173 38.266515 74.938122 132.604488 225.068476
2025-10-26 1.791419 6.509720 17.169194 39.117584 78.685024 142.017544 244.988177
2025-11-02 1.421835 5.766535 16.204374 38.572934 80.055006 147.830604 259.799331
2025-11-09 1.182880 5.302685 15.755636 38.946632 83.003901 156.243788 278.864132
2025-11-16 0.957453 4.791137 15.103088 38.825536 85.025117 163.191106 295.832308
2025-11-23 0.719867 4.126646 13.954226 37.539649 84.799734 166.373066 306.906501
2025-11-30 0.609237 3.868916 13.765210 38.243797 88.285071 175.865905 328.331090
2025-12-07 0.466620 3.403736 12.939439 37.458433 88.867009 180.417637 341.873395
2025-12-14 0.399884 3.232201 12.881283 38.376873 92.778511 190.821174 365.260817
2025-12-21 0.280771 2.717635 11.724643 36.620183 91.280104 191.699854 372.914378
2025-12-28 0.247694 2.640716 11.866518 37.954525 96.054098 203.811524 399.622444
2026-01-04 0.210965 2.515315 11.831288 38.848436 99.965480 214.499801 424.200865